Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (2024)

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A TROPICAL storm warning has been issued for parts of the Caribbean as Tropical Storm Dorian threatens to strengthen into a hurricane. So what’s in its path?

By Kate Whitfield

Hurricane season: Expert says people living on coast MUST plan

The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) has issued tropical storm watches and warnings for Barbados, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica, Martinique and Grenada. On Monday, the NHC said it expects Dorian to bring 'tropical storm conditions to the Leeward Islands later today, and the storm is forecast to strengthen. Read on for everything you need to know about Dorian.

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At 2am Atlantic Standard Time (6am UTC) on Monday, Dorian was churning about 270 miles (430km) east-southeast of Barbados.

The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 50mph (85km/h).

Dorian is ploughing forward in a westerly direction at 14mph (22km/h), a motion which is expected to continue before it turns west-northwest on Monday night and Tuesday.

The NHC said: “On the forecast track, the centre of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday."

It added: "Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea."

READ MORE:Hurricane ALERT: NOAA warns 2019 season could trigger more hurricanes

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (4)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: The system is visible in the middle (Image: NOAA)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (5)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model (Image: Cyclocane)

Warnings are in place for heavy rainfall, powerful winds and huge surf onshore.

The NHC expects the storm to produce total rain accumulations of two to four inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of six inches.

The warning added: “Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday.

“These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”

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Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (6)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Latest NHC advisory (Image: NHC)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (7)

Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model (Image: Cyclocane)

Meanwhile, scientists are monitoring an area of disorganised storms just off the coast of Florida.

The weather system, which the NHC gives a 60 percent chance of developing into a cyclone, has soaked the state's southeast region and will continue to meander up the coast during the first half of the weekend.

Once the storm moves east over open water later in the weekend, there is a better chance of intensification.

The probability is high over the next few days that a tropical cyclone will form, but the forecast models currently keep the storm off shore.

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    Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (8)

    Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Wind arrival times and strength (Image: NHC)

    Tropical Storm Dorian spaghetti model: Where could Dorian hit? (9)

    Tropical Storm Dorian: Spaghetti model for the system of disorganised storms just off the coast of Florida (Image: Cyclocane)

    Coastal areas in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas should still monitor this system.

    This is just the beginning of the most intense portion of the annual hurricane season.

    The Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons officially run from June through to the end of November.

    However, the sharpest increase in activity usually comes between August 20 and September 11, which means authorities are on full alert to track incoming weather systems.

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